Looming recession fears in the U.S. validated

The Bloomberg economists model predicts the US recession within a year's time.

With the November mid-term elections closing upon us fast, some of the key talking points for President Biden to speak on would be the great things he has done while in office. From the looks of the current economic projections from Bloomberg economists, Biden would not be happy to address what may be impossible to prevent. The recession we all are expecting.

As the financial conditions continue to present issues for most of the United States, inflation and the expectations of the Federal Reserve continuing with rate hikes are the outlook most are expecting from all the data received. Bloomberg polled a survey of 42 economists predicting the probability of a recession over the next 12 months now stands at 60%, up from 50% a month earlier. Anna Wong and Eliza Winger, Bloomberg economists, suggest an even higher recession probability with the 12-month estimate of a downturn by October 2023 hitting 100%. This is up 65% from their last economic projection.

While the odds of a recession within a year time span has turned out to be the mostly likely scenario as Bloomberg economists, and other predictions of a recession arriving sooner are also looking up as well. This means we are looking at the possibility of a recession coming prior to October of next year but a near certainty that it will be upon us in 2023. The Bloomberg Economic projection uses 13 macroeconomic indicators as well as financial indicators to predict the possibilities of this economic downturn. Full details on Bloomberg's projections, visit Josh Wingrove's original post here.